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The Older Worker and the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) Program

The U.S. Census Bureau has an innovative program that combines federal and state administrative data on employers and employees
with core Census Bureau censuses and surveys.  Its purpose is to develop new information about local labor market conditions at low
cost while protecting the confidentiality of people and firms that provide the data.

Using modern statistical and computing techniques, and in a  voluntary partnership between state labor market information agencies
and the U.S. Census Bureau, this program attempts to predict the future needs of our workforce.  Among these needs are those of the
older worker.
As of February 2004, there are twenty two states (AR, CA,
CO, DE, FL, GA, IA, ID, IL, KS, KY, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MT,
NC, ND, NJ, NM, OK, OR, PA, TX, VA, WA, WI, and WV)  
participating with the U.S. Census Bureau predicting the
future needs of the older worker. This is an ongoing project
and additional states are expected to join.

The following are interesting excerpts from
A Profile of
Older Workers in California.This profile is representative of
the profiles completed in:
CA, CO, IA, ID, IL, MD, MO, NM,
OR, PA, VA, and WV:

"A large wave of workers born during the Baby Boom of
1946 to 1964 will be leaving the workforce over the next few
decades. A larger share than in past generations may to
collect the pensions they earned over their work life and
then continue working part-time or in more flexible working
arrangements.
Decision makers are looking at the economic and policy implications for a wide
range of programs and institutions, including Social Security and Medicare; financial markets; the housing market; and recreation,
transportation, and health care systems.

What the workforce of the future looks like will depend on many factors. This report focuses on one possible scenario that some scholars
consider to be reasonable.  It assumes that Baby Boomers replicate the retirement behavior of previous generations and that immigrant
workers do not fill all of the jobs left vacant by these retirements. If these assumptions prove accurate:

The United States will lose the services of millions of highly skilled, experienced workers.  Because of the baby dearth that followed the
Baby Boom, there will not be many new workers to replace them, even as the senior adult population grows significantly. Labor force
growth is expected to fall from 1.1 percent per year in the 1990s to 0.36 percent per year in the period 2010 to 2020.

Regardless of how the future unfolds, information about the workforce decisions made by the Baby Boomers can be useful to a number
of groups.

Decision makers in California need to know which industries and regions of the state are likely to be most affected by changes in the
size and composition of the labor force in coming decades.  Similarly,
businesses need such information both to make more informed
plans for transitions and to pinpoint potential problem areas and new opportunities  
Older workers who want to continue working need
to know in what industries and in what areas of California jobs are available, how flexible businesses are about their working
arrangements, and the level of earnings they can expect."

Questions relating to older workers these reports attempt to answer:

What is the age composition of the workforce?  
The aging of Baby Boom workers led to an increase in the proportion of the workforce
45 years and older from 1992 to 2001 in California.  Many planners anticipate this proportion will grow even more rapidly over the next two
decades unless a large influx of younger workers comes into California.  In 1992, about 74 percent of California workers were 14-to-44
years old.  By 2001, that figure had dropped to about 69 percent of workers.  Fifteen percent of California workers were 45-to-54 years old
in 1992 and 20 percent were in that age group in 2001.

What changes are occurring in the age composition of the workforce in a geographic area over time?  The falling share of younger
workers occurred across the economy of California. The share of workers in California who are 65 and older, the traditional age when
most workers leave the labor force permanently, increased slightly, from 2.7 percent to 2.9 per- cent from 1992 to 2001.
Where do older workers work?   The industries where workers 65 years and over were most likely to be employed in California in 2001
were business services, eating and drinking places and health services (each employing roughly 6 to 9 percent of the workforce 65 years
and older, over 20,000 workers each). About 46 percent of workers 65 years and older in California were employed in the ten industries
(see chart below), compared with 45 percent of all workers. Older and younger workers may be employed in distinctly different types of
firms within these industries, however, and may be assigned different tasks.
Which industries will be most affected by the aging
workforce?  
Unless there is an infusion of new workers
from outside California, or from other California industries,
the study concludes the transportation equipment industry
takes the number 1 position.  15.8% of the transportation
equipment industry's work-force consisted of workers age
55 to 64 in 2001.  Another 2.8% were workers 65 and above.
  The water transportation industry is number 2 with 13.7%
of workers 55 to 64, and 3.8% 65 and over.

What do older workers earn?  On average, full-quarter
workers 65 years and older in 2001 earned $2,587 a month
in California, and workers of all ages averaged $3,496 a
month

As is the case for all workers, the average earnings
levels of older workers vary greatly among
industries.  For example, in eating and drinking
places, which employed 6.8 percent of all workers
65 years and older in California in 2001, the
average monthly earnings were $1,298. Workers 14 and older in that industry had average monthly earnings of $1,294. About 9 percent of
the oldest workers in California were employed by the business services industry, and they had average monthly earnings of $1,877. Of
the top ten industries employing older workers in California in 2001, the industry with the highest average monthly earnings was
engineering, accounting, and research, with an average of $4,505 a month.

Among all industry groups, the security/commodity brokers industry had the highest average monthly earnings in 2001 for workers 65
years and older
$11,264 – compared with $15,027 for all workers in this industry. The number of workers 65 years and older in this
industry is relatively small – 1,744 workers. Other high paying industries include holding/other investment offices, chemicals, and
communications.

SOURCES AND ACCURACY OF THE DATA

The U.S. Census Bureau and partner states produce Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWIs) for each state, metropolitan area, county, and
Workforce Investment Board area. QWIs for other geographic areas are available through the state partners.  The QWIs are updated each
quarter and annual averages are available at
http://lehd.dsd.census.gov.

See also: U.S. Census Bureau: Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI)
Online [NAICS]          and U.S. Census Bureau: Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI)
Online [SIC]           listed in the Federal Resources section of this web site.  The links are reproduced here for your
convineance.

The QWIs are key economic indicators selected jointly by the Census Bureau and its partner states. Each QWI provides a critical
measure of an area’s economy and is a tool to understand changes in the core performance of local economies."
Our linking to the above sites does not constitute an endorsement of any products, services or the information found on them. Once you
link to another site you are subject to the policies of the new site.

Copyright © 2006 Labor Market Snippets. All rights reserved