Purpose of this Web site: to uncover and make accessible to you hard to find information buried in our
vast government archives and data bases. Our orientation is on work, occupations, careers, industry, the
economy, and economic development information that can help you, your business, or your community.
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New Stuff: Be sure to check the side bar regularly. My articles change on a weekly basis, but I'm constantly
adding new stuff, sometimes hourly, as I find or discover new or interesting Web sites, resources, tools, or good
articles. Here's one: Funds for your future
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Tomorrow's Jobs—Part One: Our Population and Labor Force
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Making informed career decisions is one of those things people naturally want to put off. After all, there are always
more fun and interesting things to do. However, what is it we do for 90 percent of our lives? Unless we are born
wealthy, we work. We work to live. Are you working now? If you are, do you like what you do? Is this the job you
see yourself doing in five years? Ten years? A lifetime?
This leads us into this week's article. I found an interesting analysis projecting the future of work. It is by the U.S.
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook. It analyzes and
projects the jobs and industries they say will be in demand between 2004 and 2014. This analysis is a good
bet for those of us new to the world of work or contem- plating a career change.
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So, how do we start? We will start this multi-part series with a little background regarding our population and labor
force. Over the next few weeks we will learn the basis for making good career decisions. Making informed career
decisions requires reliable information about the work opportunities we expect in the future.
Where do these job opportunities come from? They come from:
- Us; who we are; our talents; what we like; what we do; what we make; what we buy. And, how we interact and
work with each other.
- Our desire to support ourselves, our families, acquire nice things, advance, and a desire for security.
As an example, our population is aging. We are now demanding medical services. This demand in turn determines
who provides these services, the jobs available and the skills needed to do the job. Thus, there is a rapid growth in
the demand for all of the occupations in support of health services. These jobs run from doctors, nurses, teachers,
medical assistants, to food service, clerical, janitorial, and a many other health care occupations.
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Our population in the United States is
expected to increase by 23.9 million over the
2004- 14 period. This is a slower rate of
growth than during both the 1994-2004 and
1984-94 periods (Chart 1).
Even though it will be at a slower rate,
continued growth will mean more consumers
of goods and services. Thus, the demand for
workers in a wide range of occupations and
industries will increase.
The effects of population growth on various
occupations will differ. The differences are
partially accounted for by the age distribution
of the future population.
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Source: U.S. Department of Labor
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The single most important factor in
determining the number of people who are
working or looking for work is population. Our
labor force is projected to increase by 14.7
million, or 10 percent, to 162.1 million over the
2004-14 period.
We will become more diverse by 2014.
Minorities and immigrants will constitute a
larger share of the U.S. population
White, non-Hispanic persons In our labor
force will continue to decrease in proportion to
other ethnic groups. However, even though
whites will fall from 70 percent in 2004 to 65.6
percent in 2014 (Chart 2), they
will remain the largest group.
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Source: U.S. Department of Labor
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Asians are projected to grow from 4.3 to 5.1 percent, While the number of Hispanics is projected to continue to grow
much faster than those of all other racial and ethnic groups. They will grow by 33.7 percent and will continue to
constitute a larger proportion of the labor force than will blacks, whose share will grow from 11.3 percent to 12.0
percent
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Women will grow at a faster rate than the number of men between 2004 and 2014(10.9 percent compared to 9.1
percent for men). As a result, men’s share of the labor force is expected to decrease from 53.6 to 53.2 percent,
while women’s share is expected to increase from 46.4 to 46.8 percent.
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Between 2004 and 2014, the youth
population, aged 16 to 24, will grow 2.9
percent. They are expected to slightly
decrease its share of the labor force to 13.7
percent by 2014.
The primary working age group, between
25 and 54 years old, is projected to decline
from 69.3 percent of the labor force in 2004 to
65.2 percent by 2014. This is because not as
many persons were born following the Baby
Boomer generation. Thus the group called
Generation X (aged 35 to 44) will also
decrease in size.
Baby Boomers, aged 55 to 64, will increase
by 36 percent or 10.4 million persons and will
comprise 21.2 percent of the labor force in
2014. See Chart 3.
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Source: U.S. Department of Labor
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In the next issue: We will continue the analysis and look at future employment and the industries providing that
employment.
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